UNCTAD: Global trade to grow 4% in 2026 after record 2025

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said on Friday that global trade will continue to grow in 2026 after record figures the previous year.

The agency forecast that global trade in goods and services will grow by about 4% in 2026, noting that this growth primarily reflects higher prices rather than an increase in trade volumes.

It added that the value of trade rose by 4.7% in 2025 to a record $35 trillion.

UNCTAD noted that trade between China and the United States has fallen by more than 20% since 2024, while the East Asian region has expanded its trade ties with both China and North America, highlighting a changing global trade landscape.

The agency also expects global economic growth of 2.6% this year, compared with 2.9% in 2025.

UNCTAD identified AI-related products as a major driver of trade activity.

Between 2020 and 2025, advanced economies accounted for nearly 70% of the value of announced foreign investment projects in strategic high value-added sectors, notably in semiconductors, energy transition technologies and AI infrastructure.

By contrast, developing economies only lead in the sectors of critical minerals and strategic materials, where they account for 60% of new foreign direct investment in those two areas.

The agency said energy crises caused by the war in the Middle East have particularly affected import-dependent developing economies, as well as the poorest households.

UNCTAD also highlighted projections of a roughly 7% decline in development aid in 2026 — a vital source of financing for the least developed countries and small island states — marking a third consecutive year of decline.