Study warns El Niño-linked heat could cause hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide

Baghdad – Al-Wasat Iraqi newspaper

Scientific estimates warned that the rise in temperatures linked to the "El Niño" phenomenon could lead to hundreds of thousands of additional deaths worldwide, particularly among the elderly and children, and researchers called for proactive measures to protect the most vulnerable groups.

The British magazine New Scientist reported that estimates prepared by researchers at the "Climate Impacts Lab" indicate the possibility of about 450,000 heat-related deaths during the period covered by the study, based on the observed relationship between extreme temperatures and mortality rates in different regions of the world.

Emily Grover-Kobek, a researcher in the "Rodem" group, said that "the aim of this information is to help take practical actions and direct resources proactively," noting that possible measures include tracking the most at-risk groups and ensuring the availability of water and cooling.

According to the estimates, the largest impacts are concentrated in areas where the additional heat associated with El Niño coincides with the hottest seasons, while the unusual increase in deaths can shift to other areas as seasons change.

Grover-Kobek explained that "India and Pakistan may be among the most affected," noting that the level of risk varies from one area to another depending on populations' and infrastructure's ability to adapt to higher temperatures, as well as access to cooling methods.

The researchers based their estimates on data that divided the world into about 24,000 regions, studying the relationship between temperatures and mortality rates in each region, and using historical data and comparisons between similar areas.

Those data were also combined with seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to estimate the additional deaths associated with the temperature rise caused by El Niño.

The results showed that a six-month forecast period could see about 240,000 additional heat-related deaths, while the total estimate rises to about 450,000 when counting the estimated deaths since the start of the phenomenon during the study period.

According to the estimates, Africa ranks among the most affected regions, with more than 30,000 additional deaths expected in Nigeria, about 19,000 in Indonesia, 16,000 in India and 13,000 in Brazil.

The report indicated that older adults aged 65 and over represent the group most at risk from heat, followed by children and infants, with effects also observed in other age groups.

Christopher Callahan, a researcher at Indiana University, said the link between rising temperatures and deaths is "consistent and reliable globally," explaining that death estimates also depend on the accuracy of seasonal weather forecasts.

The researchers noted that the estimated numbers are limited to heat-related deaths and do not include other impacts of El Niño, such as wildfires, floods and some infectious diseases, which means the overall health impact of the phenomenon may be broader.

Raquel Nunes, a researcher at the University of Warwick, said that "the importance is not in the absolute number of deaths so much as in the actions that can be taken to reduce avoidable harm," calling for strengthened preparedness and proactive measures to protect the most vulnerable populations.