U.S. Researcher Warns Closing Iraq–Iran Border Is Unrealistic

Jason Campbell, a researcher at the American Middle East Institute, said on Friday that the Trump administration's demands to close the border between Iraq and Iran appear unrealistic and exceed the Iraqi government's ability to implement them, noting the difficulty of achieving this given the economic importance that the Baghdad market represents to Tehran as an economic outlet.

Campbell explained that implementing such a decision would require complex military efforts that could provoke widespread internal unrest in Iraq, especially amid the ongoing government formation process and the urgent need to maintain financial and security stability. He also pointed to the field influence enjoyed by Iran-linked armed factions along the border areas, which increases the complexity of any attempts to close the crossings.

Regarding regional balances of power, Campbell noted Iran's effort to compensate for its recent losses, particularly Hezbollah's diminished role in certain arenas, by relying on asymmetric capabilities and strengthening its alliances with the Houthis and Iraqi factions to preserve its influence in the region.

Campbell said that this Iranian expansion could, in the long term, encounter joint defensive and offensive moves by regional states that might undermine the sustainability of this influence if it continues in the same direction.

On practical developments, a source familiar with the Maysan provincial council said Tuesday evening that orders had been issued by the federal government to close the al‑Shaib border crossing with Iran from 6:00 a.m. on Wednesday until further notice.

For its part, the Iranian Interior Ministry on Wednesday expressed its displeasure at the decision to close the al‑Shaib crossing, stating that it had not received prior notification of the decision.